ATFX Daily Market Commentary January 12, 2026
Gold prices surged to a fresh record high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly unrest in Iran, alongside heightened caution ahead of key U.S. inflation data. Broader financial markets reacted to mixed U.S. economic signals, shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy and influencing forex trading strategies, indices trading, and risk sentiment across global asset classes.
Market Highlights 12/01/2026
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for December increased by 50,000, falling short of market expectations for a 60,000 gain. Despite the weaker headline figure, the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.4%, beating forecasts of 4.5%, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains resilient rather than deteriorating sharply.
Following the data release, markets adjusted expectations, betting that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts for longer, even as longer-term projections still point toward easing later this year. This recalibration supported the U.S. dollar and influenced capital flows across currencies, commodities, and even the crypto market, where traders continue to assess macro-driven volatility.
U.S. equity markets advanced broadly:
- Nasdaq: +0.81%
- S&P 500: +0.65%
- Dow Jones: +0.48%, closing at a record high
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.25% to 99.13, marking its second consecutive weekly gain and reinforcing downside pressure on several major currency pairs.
Gold, Oil, and Geopolitical Risk in Focus
Gold prices climbed as investors balanced softer U.S. employment data against persistent policy uncertainty and intensifying geopolitical risks. Spot gold settled at USD 4,509.79 per ounce, up 0.76% on the day, recording a weekly gain of over 4%.
Oil prices also advanced sharply, with crude jumping more than 2% as protests intensified in Iran and Russia escalated attacks in the Ukraine conflict. These developments reignited concerns over potential supply disruptions from key energy-producing regions. On a weekly basis, U.S. crude oil gained approximately 3%.
Such geopolitical dynamics are not only supportive for traditional safe havens like gold but also increasingly relevant for crypto investment, as some investors view digital assets as alternative hedges during periods of global instability.
Key Outlook 12/01/2026
Markets now turn their attention to a packed U.S. economic calendar, which will be critical in shaping near-term expectations for Federal Reserve policy:
- CPI (Consumer Price Index)
- PPI (Producer Price Index)
- Retail Sales
These releases are likely to inject volatility into major FX pairs, equity benchmarks, and commodities, making disciplined forex trading strategies essential for navigating short-term price swings.
Elsewhere, UK and German GDP data will be closely monitored for directional cues in the British pound and the euro. In energy markets, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook are expected to guide sentiment around crude prices.
Key Data and Events
Today
- Japan: Holiday
- 17:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan)
Tomorrow
- 21:30 US CPI YoY (Nov)
- 23:00 US New Home Sales (Oct)
Market Analysis 12/01/2026
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1712 / 1.1734
Support: 1.1615 / 1.1593
EUR/USD remains under pressure as weak German export data and a firmer U.S. dollar weigh on sentiment. Ongoing tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to drive safe-haven flows. From a technical perspective, the pair is trading within a descending channel, with the 1.1712–1.1734 zone acting as firm resistance. A break below 1.1615–1.1593 would reinforce near-term bearish risks.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3466 / 1.3485
Support: 1.3402 / 1.3383
GBP/USD continues to drift lower amid strong U.S. dollar demand and muted UK data. Price action remains confined within a descending channel, with rebounds capped near the 1.3466-1.3485 resistance area. A sustained break below 1.3402-1.3383 could open the door to a deeper corrective move.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 158.02 / 158.29
Support: 157.18 / 156.92
USD/JPY is testing the upper boundary of its rising structure, with repeated rejection near the 158.02-158.29 resistance zone. While the broader uptrend remains intact, short-term consolidation or a pullback toward 157.18-156.92 cannot be ruled out. Firm U.S. rate expectations continue to support the dollar, while political uncertainty and an unclear Bank of Japan policy outlook weigh on the yen.
US Crude Oil Futures (February)
Resistance: 59.59 / 60.06
Support: 58.40 / 58.04
Oil prices rebounded strongly as protests in Iran heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions from one of the world’s major producers. Technically, price has bounced from the lower channel boundary and is now testing the 59.59-60.06 resistance zone. However, rising global inventories and demand-side uncertainty may limit sustained upside.
Spot Gold
Resistance: 4657 / 4688
Support: 4510 / 4477
Gold surged to a new all-time high, supported by weaker U.S. jobs data, rising Middle East tensions, and broader de-dollarization trends. Technically, gold remains within a rising channel, with dips attracting buyers above the 4,510-4,477 support area. Expectations of eventual Fed rate cuts continue to underpin medium-term bullish momentum.
Spot Silver
Resistance: 85.52 / 87.18
Support: 80.31 / 78.65
Final Thoughts
As markets brace for key U.S. inflation data, volatility is likely to remain elevated across currencies, commodities, and equities. Gold’s record-breaking rally highlights persistent demand for safe-haven assets, while shifting rate expectations continue to influence indices trading and capital flows.
At the same time, macro uncertainty and geopolitical risk are increasingly shaping sentiment beyond traditional markets, reinforcing the growing relevance of crypto investment and developments in the broader crypto market as part of diversified trading and risk management approaches.
